Jul 132012

A lot of people are pointing to the Mists trailer being shown at Gamescom (August 16th) as a signal that the expansion will be released in late August.

I don’t buy that. Why? Couple reasons.

  • DS nerf needs more time.  The Dragon Soul nerf won’t hit 30% until early August. If we look at Cataclysm, ICC hit 30% in July, but the expansion didn’t release until December. Yes, if you’re reading this you’re sick of DS already, but there’s hundreds of guilds still progressing who might get over the hump at 30%.
  • Trend of betas being longer. Adam had a great post on this back in April. BC beta was 95 days, Wrath was 128, Cata was 159. This beta started on March 20th, so a 190-200 day beta would see Mists land in late September/early October.
  • Jade Forest still isn’t done. That seems rather…major.
  • Guild Wars 2 releases August 28. This is the biggest reason people are predicting August…but the fact is, Blizzard generally doesn’t program expansion releases against competition. Patches, though? Sure. I could definitely see the 5.0 mechanics hitting on that date.
  • Datamined Brewfest items are Mists-caliber. Brewfest starts on September 20th. While I don’t think that’ll hold things up significantly if it went longer (they’d just move Brewfest back a week, most likely), it’s a good indicator.
  • First wave of Annual Passes ends in late October. Assuming they announce a new Annual Pass (likely) that won’t contain Mists (very likely), then they’ll want to make it available very close to the Mists release date. The WoW AP came out on October 21st, so a new one needs to be out or announced a week or two before then.

Back in January, I said “D3 in April, Mists in October.” Even though D3 slipped to May, I still think I’m pretty close. My guess:

Late July: 5.0 patch date announced.
16 August: Gamescom trailer, Mists release date announced.
28 August: 5.0 patch released.
4 September: 5.0.1 patch released to fix all the stuff 5.0 broke, Mists world event starts.
11 September: Not going to happen. Too many negative connotations still.
18 September: Possible release date.
25 September: More likely release date, with Brewfest being moved back a week and shinied up some.
Mid-October: Annual Pass 2 announced, reward is free HotS when it releases (plus free SCII if you don’t have it yet). No beta access this time, or at least restricted better.

(Yes, this is all part of my “prove me wrong, release it in August” ploy.) What do you think?

 Posted by at 9:31 am

  6 Responses to “Mists release date prediction”

  1. The DS 30% nerf happens next Tuesday. http://www.mmo-champion.com/content/2844-Dragon-Soul-Difficulty-Change-30-on-July-17

    I am having a difficult time using the Brewfest datamined gear as an expectation. The reason for that is I just don’t see Blizzard giving out free raid quality epics for free in the first week or so of the expantion. I would bet that gear that was datamined is for next year and we will get some level ~400 blues. This doesn’t mean that we won’t get the expac around Brewfest, I just don’t see us getting those goodies.

    • Missed that when I wrote this a couple days ago. I’ve heard DS is supposed to go to 35% though, so assuming that we go 2-3 weeks at 30% it ends up being about the same.

  2. I don’t think Mists will be released in time to use the data mined Brewfest gear, because I agree with Tinderhoof about Blizz giving out free epic gear so early in the expansion. But I disagree with them giving us two sets of gear; a blue set if the expansion comes before hand and an epic set next year.
    I don’t know if Mists will be released before or after Brewfest (20 Sept – 5 Oct), but I do think they will leave the gear from Brewfest and Hallows End (which is only two weeks after 18 Oct – 31 Oct) the same for this year.

    Re: Annual Pass
    It is likely that we will see another annual pass but I don’t think it will involve Heart of the Swarm because there is less player overlap between SC and WOW than Diable and WOW. However I have no idea what other incentives they will use.

  3. This is approximately the timeline I was thinking: 5.0 patch in late August, expansion release in late Sept or early Oct.

  4. I do not believe it will be out in August, based on the fact that the release date has not even been announced yet. If you look back at the history of when expansion release dates were announced, and their actual release date, it’s an average of 9 weeks between them. If we were getting Mists in late August, the release date would’ve been announced in mid to late June.

    If we are getting the expansion in late Sept., early Oct., then we’d need to hear a release date before the first week in August is up. My personal opinion is they will use the trailer to announce the release date, and we’ll see it Oct 16th.

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