Jan 122014
 

I was super excited after my 12-2 Paladin run (and a subsequent 9-3 Mage run) last weekend. I told myself “This is it! I’ve turned the corner! I’m really good at this game now!”

Then came this week…and splat. I didn’t do badly, in an objective sense: 19-12 over 4 runs is still a 60% win rate, and 3 of those were with classes I’m not as familiar with. Yet, I couldn’t shake the feeling that things were just getting more generally difficult. Eager to find someone else then myself to blame for failures, I decided to go digging for some stats, and voila: Arena Mastery. (Excellent, excellent site. Please submit stats to them or Hearthstats if you don’t already!)

My theory is simple: due to the holidays, the rate of new beta keys going out dwindled rapidly, which has thinned the new player pool considerably. With fewer of those newer players setting forth with their free entries/initial achievement gold (and getting crushed), all the better arena players are playing each other more often, which kills win rates for everybody. Now, Arena Mastery only started logging stats on 10 December, but it does give me some options for splits. Let’s see what the average # of wins is for more recent splits: If it’s falling, my theory may be correct. Remember, these are stats for Arena Mastery users, who presumably are more invested in the game (and improving) then the average player.

  • Since 10 December: 4.96 average wins (27272 games logged)
  • Since 18 December: 4.93 average wins (22708 games logged)
  • Since 04 January: 4.77 average wins (6811 games logged)
  • Since 09 January: 4.70 average wins (2874 games logged)
  • Since 10 January: 4.63 average wins (1060 games logged)

Even though I’d be wary of the last few splits due to sample size, the trend is pretty clear. Some quick math shows that from 10 December to 04 January, the average win # was 5.02; it’s dropped a quarter-win since then.  Whether it’s keys or another reason, people are getting better at Arena, and going “infinite” (meaning averaging 7 wins per run, or 70% winrate) is harder than ever. Thankfully, this should smooth out soon once things hit open beta and an influx of new players shows up, but if you’re getting frustrated with your performance right now, this might be a good time to take a break. Now that Test Season 2 has started, I’m considering playing some ladder games and just saving gold for a bit. We’ll see – I’ve still got that Steam backlog to work through as well.

 Posted by at 12:35 am

  7 Responses to “If you think HS Arena is getting harder…you’re right.”

  1. As more people use Arena Mastery, the stats will approach the mean of the population: 3-3.

    • Absolutely, that’s another plausible explanation. Unfortunately, we have no stats on the total number of players. It’d be tough for me to believe that AM stats constitute anything more than a tiny minority.

      • If Arena Mastery started tracking the accountname of your opponent and your own account we could estimate the total number of arena players by the frequency of playing players who are registered at AM.

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